Comparison of Some Improved Estimators for Linear Regression Model under Different Conditions

Multiple linear regression model plays a key role in statistical inference and it has extensive applications in business, environmental, physical and social sciences. Multicollinearity has been a considerable problem in multiple regression analysis. When the regressor variables are multicollinear, it becomes difficult to make precise statistical inferences about the regression coefficients. There are some statistical methods that can be used, which are discussed in this thesis are ridge regression, Liu, two parameter biased and LASSO estimators. Firstly, an analytical comparison on the basis of risk was made among ridge, Liu and LASSO estimators under orthonormal regression model. I found that LASSO dominates least squares, ridge and Liu estimators over a significant portion of the parameter space for large dimension. Secondly, a simulation study was conducted to compare performance of ridge, Liu and two parameter biased estimator by their mean squared error criterion. I found that two parameter biased estimator performs better than its corresponding ridge regression estimator. Overall, Liu estimator performs better than both ridge and two parameter biased estimator.

Trichloroethylene fate and transport studies and biodegradation kinetics in the saturated zone

Permeable reactive barriers (PRB) are constructed from soil solid amendments to support the growth of bacteria that are capable of degrading organic contaminants. The objective of this study was to identify low-cost soil solid amendments that could retard the movement of trichloroethylene (TCE) while serving as long-lived carbon sources to foster its biodegradation in shallow groundwater through the use of a PRB. The natural amendments high in organic carbon content such as eucalyptus mulch, compost, wetland peat, organic humus were compared based on their geophysical characteristics, such as pHw, porosity and total organic carbon (TOC), and as well as TCE sorption potentials. The pHw values were within neutral range except for pine bark mulch and wetland peat. All other geophysical characteristics of the amendments showed suitability for use in a PRB. While the Freundlich model showed better fit for compost and pine bark mulch, the linear sorption model was adequate for eucalyptus mulch, wetland peat and Everglades muck within the concentration range studied (0.2-0.8 mg/L TCE). According to these results, two composts and eucalyptus mulch were selected for laboratory column experiments to evaluate their effectiveness at creating and maintaining conditions suitable for TCE anaerobic dechlorination. The columns were monitored for pH, ORP, TCE degradation, longevity of nutrients and soluble TOC to support TCE dechlorination. Native bacteria in the columns had the ability to convert TCE to DCEs; however, the inoculation with the TCE-degrading culture greatly increased the rate of biodegradation. This caused a significant increase in by-product concentration, mostly in the form of DCEs and VC followed by a slow degradation to ethylene. Of the tested amendments eucalyptus mulch was the most effective at supporting the TCE dechlorination. The experimental results of TCE sequential dechlorination took place in eucalyptus mulch and commercial compost from Savannah River Site columns were then simulated using the Hydrus-1D model. The simulations showed good fit with the experimental data. The results suggested that sorption and degradation were the dominant fate and transport mechanisms for TCE and DCEs in the column, supporting the use of these amendments in a permeable reactive barrier to remediate the TCE.

The order selection and lot sizing problem in the make-to-order environment

This research is motivated by the need for considering lot sizing while accepting customer orders in a make-to-order (MTO) environment, in which each customer order must be delivered by its due date. Job shop is the typical operation model used in an MTO operation, where the production planner must make three concurrent decisions; they are order selection, lot size, and job schedule. These decisions are usually treated separately in the literature and are mostly led to heuristic solutions. The first phase of the study is focused on a formal definition of the problem. Mathematical programming techniques are applied to modeling this problem in terms of its objective, decision variables, and constraints. A commercial solver, CPLEX is applied to solve the resulting mixed-integer linear programming model with small instances to validate the mathematical formulation. The computational result shows it is not practical for solving problems of industrial size, using a commercial solver. The second phase of this study is focused on development of an effective solution approach to this problem of large scale. The proposed solution approach is an iterative process involving three sequential decision steps of order selection, lot sizing, and lot scheduling. A range of simple sequencing rules are identified for each of the three subproblems. Using computer simulation as the tool, an experiment is designed to evaluate their performance against a set of system parameters. For order selection, the proposed weighted most profit rule performs the best. The shifting bottleneck and the earliest operation finish time both are the best scheduling rules. For lot sizing, the proposed minimum cost increase heuristic, based on the Dixon-Silver method performs the best, when the demand-to-capacity ratio at the bottleneck machine is high. The proposed minimum cost heuristic, based on the Wagner-Whitin algorithm is the best lot-sizing heuristic for shops of a low demand-to-capacity ratio. The proposed heuristic is applied to an industrial case to further evaluate its performance. The result shows it can improve an average of total profit by 16.62%. This research contributes to the production planning research community with a complete mathematical definition of the problem and an effective solution approach to solving the problem of industry scale.

Rapid responses of vegetation to hydrological changes in Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

We analyzed the dynamics of freshwater marsh vegetation of Taylor Slough in eastern Everglades National Park for the 1979 to 2003 period, focusing on cover of individual plant species and on cover and composition of marsh communities in areas potentially influenced by a canal pump station (‘‘S332’’) and its successor station (‘‘S332D’’). Vegetation change analysis incorporated the hydrologic record at these sites for three intervals: pre-S332 (1961–1980), S332 (1980–1999), post-S332 (1999–2002). During S332 and post-S332 intervals, water level in Taylor Slough was affected by operations of S332 and S332D. To relate vegetation change to plot-level hydrological conditions in Taylor Slough, we developed a weighted averaging regression and calibration model (WA) using data from the marl prairies of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. We examined vegetation pattern along five transects. Transects 1–3 were established in 1979 south of the water delivery structures, and were influenced by their operations. Transects 4 and 5 were established in 1997, the latter west of these structures and possibly under their influence. Transect 4 was established in the northern drainage basin of Taylor Slough, beyond the likely zones of influence of S332 and S332D. The composition of all three southern transects changed similarly after 1979. Where muhly grass (Muhlenbergia capillaris var. filipes) was once dominant, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), replaced it, while where sawgrass initially predominated, hydric species such as spikerush (Eleocharis cellulosa Torr.) overtook it. Most of the changes in species dominance in Transects 1–3 occurred after 1992, were mostly in place by 1995–1996, and continued through 1999, indicating how rapidly vegetation in seasonal Everglades marshes can respond to hydrological modifications. During the post-S332 period, these long-term trends began reversing. In the two northern transects, total cover and dominance of both muhly grass and sawgrass increased from 1997 to 2003. Thus, during the 1990’s, vegetation composition south of S332 became more like that of long hydroperiod marshes, but afterward it partially returned to its 1979 condition, i.e., a community characteristic of less prolonged flooding. In contrast, the vegetation change along the two northern transects since 1997 showed little relationship to hydrologic status.

Tropical seagrass-associated macroalgae distributions and trends relative to water quality

Tropical coastal marine ecosystems including mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reef communities are undergoing intense degradation in response to natural and human disturbances, therefore, understanding the causes and mechanisms present challenges for scientist and managers. In order to protect our marine resources, determining the effects of nutrient loads on these coastal systems has become a key management goal. Data from monitoring programs were used to detect trends of macroalgae abundances and develop correlations with nutrient availability, as well as forecast potential responses of the communities monitored. Using eight years of data (1996–2003) from complementary but independent monitoring programs in seagrass beds and water quality of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), we: (1) described the distribution and abundance of macroalgae groups; (2) analyzed the status and spatiotemporal trends of macroalgae groups; and (3) explored the connection between water quality and the macroalgae distribution in the FKNMS. In the seagrass beds of the FKNMS calcareous green algae were the dominant macroalgae group followed by the red group; brown and calcareous red algae were present but in lower abundance. Spatiotemporal patterns of the macroalgae groups were analyzed with a non-linear regression model of the abundance data. For the period of record, all macroalgae groups increased in abundance (Abi) at most sites, with calcareous green algae increasing the most. Calcareous green algae and red algae exhibited seasonal pattern with peak abundances (Φi) mainly in summer for calcareous green and mainly in winter for red. Macroalgae Abi and long-term trend (mi) were correlated in a distinctive way with water quality parameters. Both the Abi and mi of calcareous green algae had positive correlations with NO3−, NO2−, total nitrogen (TN) and total organic carbon (TOC). Red algae Abi had a positive correlation with NO2−, TN, total phosphorus and TOC, and the mi in red algae was positively correlated with N:P. In contrast brown and calcareous red algae Abi had negative correlations with N:P. These results suggest that calcareous green algae and red algae are responding mainly to increases in N availability, a process that is happening in inshore sites. A combination of spatially variable factors such as local current patterns, nutrient sources, and habitat characteristics result in a complex array of the macroalgae community in the seagrass beds of the FKNMS.

Influence of gender and life stressors on longitudinal depression treatment outcomes among older primary care patients

Purpose: Depression in older females is a significant and growing problem. Females who experience life stressors across the life span are at higher risk for developing problems with depression than their male counterparts. The primary aim of this study was (a) to examine gender-specific differences in the correlates of depression in older primary care patients based on baseline and longitudinal analyses; and (b) to examine the longitudinal effect of biopsychosocial risk factors on depression treatment outcomes in different models of behavioral healthcare (i.e., integrated care and enhanced referral). Method: This study used a quantitative secondary data analysis with longitudinal data from the Primary Care Research in Substance Abuse and Mental Health for Elderly (PRISM-E) study. A linear mixed model approach to hierarchical linear modeling was used for analysis using baseline assessment, and follow-up from three-month and six-month. Results: For participants diagnosed with major depressive disorder female gender was associated with increased depression severity at six-month compared to males at six-month. Further, the interaction between gender and life stressors found that females who reported loss of family and friends, family issues, money issues, medical illness was related to higher depression severity compared to males whereas lack of activities was related to lower depression severity among females compared to males. Conclusion: These findings suggest that gender moderated the relationship between specific life stressors and depression severity similar to how a protective factor can impact a person's response to a problem and reduce the negative impact of a risk factor on a problem outcome. Therefore, life stressors may be a reliable predictor of depression for both females and males in either behavioral health treatment model. This study concluded that life stressors influence males basic comfort, stability, and survival whereas life stressors influence females' development, personal growth, and happiness; therefore, life stressors may be a useful component to include in gender-based screening and assessment tools for depression. ^

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.